使用外语能降低经济决策偏差吗?来自实验室的证据

文章旨在检验使用外语对经济决策的两类核心问题，即不确定性（风险、模糊性）决策和跨期决策的偏差是否产生影响。两组实验被试被随机分到母语组和外语组，分别采用母语和外语完成一系列决策任务。实验结果发现使用外语能够显著降低与风险相关的决策偏差，但并不能降低与模糊性和跨期决策有关的决策偏差。具体而言，在与框架效应有关的风险决策任务中，使用外语显著减少了决策的框架效应；与母语组相比，在与小额金钱、大额金钱有关的风险决策问题中，外语组的反射效应消失了；外语组的阿莱行为也显著减少。在模糊性决策任务中，母语组与外语组在决策偏差上没有显著差异。在跨期决策任务中，使用外语对个体的焦虑程度没有显著的影响，但显著增加了双曲贴现偏好。这说明风险、模糊性和跨期决策所涉及的认知过程存在差异，使用外语对决策产生的作用具有复杂性。     

Policy lessons from spatiotemporal enrollment patterns of payment for ecosystem service programs in Argentina

Payment for ecosystem services schemes (PES) are lauded as a market-based solution to curtail deforestation and restore degraded ecosystems. However, PES programs often fail to conserve sites under strong long-term deforestation pressures. Underperformance, in part, is likely due to adverse selection. Spatial adverse selection occurs when landowners are more likely to enroll parcels with low deforestation pressure than parcels with high deforestation pressure. Temporal adverse selection arises when parcels are enrolled for short time periods. In both cases, financial resources are allocated without having a sizeable impact on long-term land use change. Improving program performance to overcome these shortcomings requires understanding attributes of landowners and their parcels across large scales to identify spatial and temporal enrollment patterns that drive adverse selection. In this paper, we examine these patterns in Argentina’s PES program in Chaco forest, a global deforestation hotspot. Our study area covers 252,319 km². Results from multinomial logistic regression models showed that large parcels of enrolled land and parcels owned by absentee landowners exhibit greater evidence of spatiotemporal adverse selection than smaller parcels or parcels owned by local landowners. Furthermore, parcels managed under land use plans for conservation and restoration are more likely to be associated with adverse selection than parcels managed for financial returns such as harvest of non-timber forest products, silviculture, and silvopasture. However, prior to recommending that PES programs focus on land uses with higher potential earnings, a greater understanding is needed of the degree to which these land uses meet ecological and biodiversity goals of PES programs. We suggest that increased spatial targeting of enrollment, along with enrollment of local landowners and further incentives for land uses that support conservation and restoration, could promote long-term conservation of forest lands.     

Evaluation of forestland use in mining operation activities in Turkey in terms of sustainable natural resources

Mining has been necessary for human activities and is conducted in line with this need. The location of mines must sometimes be where land use overlaps with other activities because the location of the mined substance cannot be changed. In Turkey, forestland are the most common of these overlapping areas. Therefore, mining has frequently occurred on forestland in Turkey—and worldwide. After the mining operation activities are conducted, the forestland are rehabilitated and returned to the forest administration. The examination of used and returned areas provides an opportunity to create an optimal situation between “mining for sustainable development” and “protection of forestland.”Accordingly, several questions, such as mining production amounts, degrees of social and economic development of the cities in which enterprises are conducting mining, the quantity of the areas they used for mining activities in forestland, the areas which were returned to the forest administration, operating license areas and operation permit areas, and the life of mining operation, were asked to the mining enterprises in Turkey through the “Survey Monkey” program in 2018. Thus, according to mineral groups, different land use rates were compared with the operating license areas, and the land uses for each mineral group were analyzed by considering the operation activity periods. The results indicate that the sustainability of the use of forestry in mining activities in Turkey has changed in a positive direction, particularly because of changes in mining and environmental legislation in Turkey over the last decade.     

Linking words in economic discourse: Implications for macroeconomic forecasts

This paper develops indicators of unstructured press information by exploiting word vector representations. A model is trained using a corpus covering 90 years of Wall Street Journal content. The information content of the indicators is assessed through business cycle forecast exercises. The vector representations can learn meaningful word associations that are exploited to construct indicators of uncertainty. In-sample and out-of-sample forecast exercises show that the indicators contain valuable information regarding future economic activity. The combination of indices associated with different subjective states (e.g., uncertainty, fear, pessimism) results in further gains in information content. The documented performance is unmatched by previous dictionary-based word counting techniques proposed in the literature.     

HUMANITARIAN CRISES AND ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING: KNOWLEDGE,GAPS, AND PROSPECTS

Adolescence constitutes the second and final window of human growth and a period of specific vulnerabilities, such as early pregnancy, early marriage, HIV infection, suicide, violence, alcohol, and drugs. Only a limited body of research investigates the effects of humanitarian crises on the human capital and well-being of adolescents. The evidence focuses on the short-term effects of conflict and, to a lesser extent, natural disasters on education, physical health, and nutrition, but not on mental health. Most analyses examine the situations of individuals exposed in utero and young childhood, but rarely during adolescence. Typically missing are robust empirical identification strategies and estimates on heterogeneous effects across age or gender. The lack of quality data and challenges in defining adolescence, establishing causality, or ensuring ethical research explain the knowledge gaps. Possible ways to expand the evidence base include mixing georeferenced data on individual location with georeferenced data on crises, sharpening quasi-experimental analytical techniques, and reconsidering the current timing of demographic data collection, now spanning 4- or 5-year intervals. The failure to make such adjustments will end by ignoring specific vulnerabilities among adolescents and render sustainable progress in well-being globally, narrowing inequalities, and guaranteeing human rights to all more difficult to achieve.     

How managerial attitudes toward the natural environment affect market orientation and innovation

This study investigates natural environmental attitude linkages held by strategic decision makers and hypothesizes that the interaction between market orientation and managerial natural environmental attitudes serves to enhance the effect of market orientation on firm innovativeness. Using questionnaire responses from 284 owners or chief executive officers residing in the food processing industry, the findings establish evidence of (1) a positive linkage between market orientation and firm innovativeness, and (2) the moderating effect of managerial attitudes of top managers toward the natural environmental in the market orientation to firm innovativeness relationship. The results provide insight into the nature of the cultural values on which a market orientation is based in relation to the natural environment.     

我国高比例加工贸易引发的思考

我国已经成为世界第三大贸易国,但在根据原产地规则计算的进出口总额中,加工贸易的比例正迅速增加,本文从进出口贸易的统计数据出发,指出这一现象源自外商投资企业贸易额占我国贸易额的高比例以及其自身贸易方式中加工贸易的高比例,分析了这种外商投资企业主导进出口贸易,且以加工贸易为主的格局对我国经济的短期和长期影响,就我国今后吸引外资的方向和国内企业的发展做了进一步探讨。     

论我国加工贸易的就业效应

我国将在较长时期内面临强大的就业压力.贸易政策也要把追求就业增长和就业质量提高作为其核心目标.加工贸易将我国的劳动力优势与发达国家的资本技术优势相结合,创造了大量的就业岗位,并为我们培养了大量高素质的蓝领工人、技术人才和管理人员.我们要正确认识加工贸易对经济发展的作用,并推动其健康发展.     

用随机存贮器构成的相关处理器电路

日益发展的新体制雷达技术的大量使用,给分选识别雷达信号技术提出了越来越高的要求。为能快速准确地从繁杂的信号环境中识别出各种雷达信号源,本文提供了一个能够分离信号流中固定重频和抖动重频的电路。在介绍了电路结构的基础上,详细介绍了电路工作原理以及时序实现等。